West Virginia +7 3.3% play
I understand UCF has a good home field, but not on a noon kickoff, and we are getting a bit of an inflated line here base don UCF almost taking out Oklahoma and their old QB a week ago. It seemed like that was a max effort for the team. Meanwhile West Virginia struggled and lost to Oklahoma State, which is nothing new for West Virginia. For whatever reason Neal Brown has struggled vs. Mike Gundy, and it happened again a week ago. However, I actually think West Virginia matches up well in this one.
West Virginia needs to establish the run in order to stay in games, and they rank 125th in seconds per play and can certainly play keep away in this one. They got their running QB back in Greene, and they get to go up against the 116th ranked success rate defense, which ranks 112th in defense ypc, 127th in rushing success defense, 127th in third down defense, 133rd in turnovers forced. I think West Virginia’s offense can have success, and help their defense out. West Virginia’s defense is very good especially vs. the pass where they rank 5th in success rate. UCF lives off their explosive plays, but WEst Virginia is very good at limiting those ranking 35th in explosive plays allowed. They are also 28th in third down defense. West Virginia is also the better special teams team and red zone team.
